【中联钢早讯】央行等四部门发布关于金融支持粤港澳大湾区建设的意见

2020-05-15

今日早讯看点(2020年5月15日星期五)

——---宏观要闻---——

[国际方面】

1、美东时间周四,美股盘初低开下探,触底后持续上扬。截止收盘,道指涨377.37点,涨幅1.62%,报23625.34点;纳指涨0.91%,标普500指数涨1.15%。欧洲主要股指全线收跌,德国DAX指数跌幅为1.95%;英国富时100指数跌幅为2.75%;法国CAC40指数跌幅为1.65%。国际油价大涨,WTI 6月原油期货涨幅8.98%,报27.56美元/桶。布轮特7月原油期货涨幅6.65%,报31.13美元/桶。

2、德国财长肖尔茨表示,6月初将宣布经济刺激计划;

3、美国劳工部公布的数据显示,上周首次申请失业救济人数达到298.1万,之前一周为316.9万。这是该指标在连续7周高于300万后首次回落至300万以下水平。该数字高于此前经济学家预期本周申请救济人数为270万;

4、美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)警告说,交易所、券商要做好应对商品波动的准备,某些交易可能出现负价格;

5、日本首相安倍晋三表示,日本政府计划在6月17日本届国会会期结束前,通过第二份补充预算案,为缓解新冠疫情的进一步举措提供资金;

6、国际能源署发表月报表示,下调对2020年下半年的石油预期,需求将同比下降460万桶/天;但国际能源署同时也表示,石油市场出现改善;

7、特朗普称9月前美国失业率不会低于10%;

8、联合国发布的《2020年世界经济形势与展望年中报告》显示,受疫情影响,2020年全球经济预期萎缩3.2%。2020年至2021年,全球经济产出累计损失将达到8.5万亿美元,几乎抹去过去四年的全部增长。报告警告,不要忽视生产性的投资,却贸然采取大规模财政和货币的刺激措施,例如向金融市场注入数万亿美元流动性,导致股票和债券价格迅速回升;

9、英国央行行长贝利发表讲话,指出基于封锁导致的经济大幅下行,但央行购买的政府债券数量比本可以购买的要多得多。这次海量的购债计划已经至少购买了2000亿英镑的政府债券,且应当会保持借贷利率维持低位;

10、澳大利亚统计局发布数据显示,4月份该国有近60万人失业,系有记录以来单月就业人数最大降幅。同时,失业率飙升整整一个百分点,至6.2%,是自2015年9月以来的最高失业率;

11、信用评级机构穆迪公布,预计2020年全球汽车销量将下降20%,超过此前预计的下降幅度(2.5%),该机构对全球汽车行业仍持“负面”展望;

12、美国财政部发布数据显示,新冠疫情造成政府支出上升、收入下降,美国4月份财政预算赤字升至创纪录的7380亿美元。2020财年(2019年10月1日至2020年9月30日)迄今预算赤字已攀升至1.481万亿美元。美国独立研究机构联邦预算问责委员会预计,到2020财年结束时,美国本财年预算赤字将超过3.8万亿美元;

13、新西兰政府宣布一项总额为500亿新西兰元(约合300亿美元)的开支计划,旨在拯救经济特别是促进就业,因而也被称为“就业预算”。根据新西兰财政部预测,受新冠疫情和封闭措施影响,到今年9月,新西兰失业率将从现在的4%上升到近10%;截至今年6月底的2020财年国内生产总值将下降4.6%。

14、二十国集团贸易和投资部长支持贸易和投资工作组制订的《二十国集团应对新冠疫情、支持世界贸易和投资的行动计划》,行动计划中指出,短期应对措施强调避免疫情防控对国际贸易造成不必要的障碍,提高贸易便利化和透明度,加强物流网络的运作,支持中小微企业等;长期措施则包括支持多边贸易体系,分享最佳做法,尤其是在全球危机时期,对扩大基本商品和服务的生产和贸易可采取的措施。

[国内方面]

1、人民银行、银保监会、证监会、外汇局近日发布《关于金融支持粤港澳大湾区建设的意见》,从促进粤港澳大湾区跨境贸易和投融资便利化、扩大金融业对外开放、促进金融市场和金融基础设施互联互通、提升粤港澳大湾区金融服务创新水平、切实防范跨境金融风险等五个方面提出26条具体措施;

2、中共中央政治局常务委员会召开会议,会议指出,要实现产业基础再造和产业链提升工程,巩固传统产业优势,强化优势产业领先地位,抓紧布局战略性新兴产业、未来产业,提升产业基础高级化、产业链现代化水平。要发挥新型举国体制优势,加强科技创新和技术攻关,强化关键环节、关键领域、关键产品保障能力;

3、商务部发布的数据显示,4月份,中国实际使用外资703.6亿元人民币,同比增长11.8%(折合101.4亿美元,同比增长8.6%)。同时指出,一批稳外资政策措施落地,中国着力加强投资促进和保护,外商投资信心不断增强,一批重点外资项目陆续签约落地,加之去年同期基数较低,是实现年内首次正增长的主要原因。取得这一成绩并不容易。疫情对世界经济和全球产业链产生了重大冲击,近日美日等国鼓励企业从中国撤离,一度引发中国是否会出现“撤资潮”的担忧。高峰坦言,当前全球疫情形势依然严峻,全球跨国直接投资仍然处于严重低迷状态,今年吸收外资形势依然严峻复杂,稳住外贸外资基本盘的压力依然很大;

4、国家发改委发布消息称,截至5月13日,国内成品油价格挂靠的国际市场原油前10个工作日平均价格低于每桶40美元。根据《石油价格管理办法》和《油价调控风险准备金征收管理办法》有关规定,本次汽、柴油价格不作调整,未调金额将全部纳入油价调控风险准备金,全额上缴中央国库;

5、农业农村部召开“三夏”农机跨区作业暨农业机械化工作部署视频会议,就推动农业各产业机械化、东北黑土地保护性耕作行动、丘陵贫困山区机械化和农机购置补贴实施等农业机械化转型升级重点工作作出了部署;

6、四川省2020年政府工作报告中提到,加快“新三直”特高压等重大项目的建设,即雅中-江西、白鹤滩-江苏、白鹤滩-浙江±800千伏特高压直流输电工程。国网公司此前已将年度固定资产投资额调增为4600亿元,业内人士预计,未来两年,我国特高压年新增建设数量将刷新历史纪录,输配电设备需求有望接近500亿元;

7、财政部部长刘昆在《人民日报》刊文表示,新冠肺炎疫情对财政收入增长带来巨大冲击。今年一季度财政收入出现负增长,预计2020年全年一般公共预算收入将低于上年;同时还表示,积极的财政政策更加积极有为,通过适当提高赤字率、发行抗疫特别国债、增加地方政府专项债券规模、巩固和拓展减税降费成效等,有助于进一步推动供给侧结构性改革,挖掘内需潜力,激发市场活力,培育内生动力,有效应对经济运行中出现的短期冲击和挑战,实现经济社会持续健康发展。

8、 中华全国总工会新闻发言人、宣教部部长刘迎祥在北京表示,全总和各级工会按照保居民就业、保基本民生、保市场主体、保粮食能源安全、保产业链供应链稳定、保基层运转的要求,突出做好稳就业工作,最大限度稳定企业用工、稳定就业岗位。

9、中央国债登记结算有限责任公司发布4月债券市场风险监测报告显示,债券市场杠杆率季节性回落。4月末市场总体杠杆率为1.11,环比下降0.05,同比持平。机构平均杠杆率高于2倍的有533家,占比5.67%,环比上升0.11个百分点;

10、《河北省2020年工业节能与综合利用工作要点》近日印发。今年河北省将深入实施绿色制造工程,强化工业节能诊断服务,加快新产品、新设备、新材料的推广应用,提高资源能源利用效率,培育绿色经济新增长点;

11国内商品期市黑色品种夜盘涨跌不一,截至收盘,其中焦煤收跌0.75%,焦炭收涨1.29%,铁矿石收涨0.15%,螺纹钢收跌0.46%,热卷收涨0.15%。

 

——---产业链信息---——

——--中国钢铁行业动态--——

--协会动态--

中国煤炭工业协会发布《2019煤炭行业发展年度报告》

中国煤炭工业协会发布《2019煤炭行业发展年度报告》,报告显示,2019年累计退出煤炭落后产能9亿吨/年以上,全国煤炭消费量同比增长1%,全国原煤产量同比增长4.0%,全国煤炭净进口增长6.3%。另外还分析了2020年1-4月煤炭经济运行基本情况,展望了今后一个时期煤炭市场走势。一是煤炭需求减少。一季度全国煤炭消费量8.7亿吨左右,同比下降6.8%。二是煤炭供应大幅增加。一季度,全国规模以上煤炭企业原煤生产完成8.3亿吨,同比减少约400万吨。三是煤炭库存增加。截至3月末,煤炭企业库存为5500万吨,比年初5380万吨增长2.2%。四是煤炭价格明显下降。截至5月6日,市场煤价格为475元/吨,比年初下降84元/吨,比去年同期下降142元/吨,跌破中长期合同价格绿色区间。五是经济效益下降。一季度,全国规模以上煤炭企业营业收入4290.7亿元,同比下降12.7%;实现利润421.1亿元,同比下降29.9%。初步预计,下半年,随着“六稳”、“六保”工作稳步推进,扩大内需政策落地,工业和经济增长速度将恢复到应有水平,煤炭总需求将会好于上半年。

--钢厂动态--

1、加强银企合作打造“产融结合”样板交通银行访问中国宝武

陈德荣指出,随着供给侧结构性改革的推进,中国宝武正在围绕钢铁主业打造全新的产业链、供应链、生态圈,公司在金融服务上的需求进一步加大。中国宝武已经在B2B商业模式、区块链等方面做出了探索,借助金融科技的手段为生态圈上下游企业提供金融支持。我们也愿意通过与银行的合作,做好对中小微企业的服务,解决行业痛点。同时,中国宝武在“走出去”战略实施、国内供给侧结构性改革、进一步提升行业集中度以及城市钢厂转型开发等方面也有较大的金融需求,希望双方能够加强合作,实现互利共赢。

2、河钢唐钢首批冷轧箱体用钢成功下线

日前,河钢唐钢与山西某公司合作开发的20吨1.5毫米高强度薄规格冷轧箱体用钢TG700XT成功下线。该产品经下游用户冷成型、焊接等工序加工后,将制成货车箱体结构产品,用于载重汽车改装行业。

--钢厂调研

重点板材厂调价:

单位:元/吨

--中联钢调研

【中联钢:澳洲铁矿石月度发货量统计】据中国联合钢铁网最新统计,4月份澳洲主流铁矿石发货量约7556万吨,环比减少124万吨,同比增加261万吨;发往中国约6092万吨,环比减少119万吨,同比增加64万吨。其中粉矿5912万吨,环比减少145万吨,同比增加192万吨;块矿1644万吨,环比增加21万吨,同比增加78万吨。

分矿山来看,4月份,力拓发货量约3021万吨,环比增加75万吨,同比增加21万吨;发中国约2304万吨,环比增加204万吨,同比减少123万吨;

4月份,FMG发货量约1523万吨,环比减少125万吨,同比增加72万吨;发中国约1397万吨,环比减少191万吨,同比减少13万吨;

4月份,BHP发货量约2495万吨,环比微降5万吨,同比增加185万吨;发中国约2062万吨,环比减少46万吨,同比增加238万吨;

4月份,罗伊山发货量约348万吨,环比减少108万吨,同比减少36万吨;发中国约170万吨,环比减少126万吨,同比减少56万吨

4月份,PMI/ATLAS发货量约169万吨,环比增加39万吨,同比增加19万吨;发中国约159万吨,环比增加40万吨,同比增加18万吨;

【中联钢:巴西铁矿石月度发货量统计】据中国联合钢铁网最新统计,4月巴西铁矿石发货量约2374万吨,环比增加219万吨,同比增加624万吨,发往中国约1582万吨,环比增加164万吨。其中,分矿山发货量,VALE发货量约1845万吨,环比增加222万吨;CSN发货量约215万吨,环比增加62万吨;英美资源发货量约189万吨,环比减少72万吨;分品种发货量,卡粉发货量约1196万吨,环比增加109万吨;球团发货量约170万吨,环比增加20万吨;巴粗发货量约779万吨,环比增加154万吨;精粉发货量约189万吨,环比减少64万吨。

【中联钢:唐山高炉开工率】据中国联合钢铁网最新统计,14日唐山165座高炉中共61座高炉检修,容积为37630m³,占总容积的23.99%,开工率76.01%,环比增0.28%;个数开工率为63.03%,环比增0.61%;其中,剔除去产能和长期停产后的高炉容积开工率为89.04%,环比增0.3%。据本网不完全统计唐山及秦皇岛地区钢坯投放量大约5.65万吨

【中联钢:唐津霸三地带钢轧线开工率】据中国联合钢铁网最新统计,14日唐津霸三地开工41条带钢生产线,开工率为34.45%,环比增0.8%。其中,唐山12条窄带轧线开工,开工率约为35.29%,与上周持平;唐山17条232以上带钢线开工,开工率约为38.64%,环比增2.28%;霸州及天津两地12条带钢线开工,开工率为29.27%,与上周持平。(黄真锋 13681170848/柳丹阳15901008840)

——-每日钢市视点-——

--钢材市场--

【建筑钢材】14日国内线螺价格继续盘整运行,各地价格窄幅波动。主要城市螺纹均价为3632元/吨,与昨日持平,周环比降3元/吨。螺纹期货主力合约收盘价3445元/吨,与昨日收盘价降19元/吨;较杭州中天螺纹市价3530元/吨贴水115元/吨。期货继续弱势运行,但现货市场成交表现则尚可。预计线螺价格呈窄幅震荡运行,部分地区价格有望回升(沈全 010-57930530)

【热轧卷板】14日热轧现货价格普遍上涨,涨幅扩大。全国主要城市均价3510元/吨较昨日上涨9元/吨。上海3410-3430元/吨涨10元/吨,天津3450-3470元/吨涨20元/吨,乐从3480-3490元/吨涨20元/吨。今天华东,中南和华北地区多个城市均有10-20元上涨。主要城市现货成交继续好转。热轧期货震荡小幅上行,收盘3344小涨7涨幅0.21%。今天燕钢中标价格较昨天再涨10元,超过上海当地现货价格。15日期货有较大数量的集中交割对华东现货造成冲击,预计价格会受此影响而走低。(史文飞010-57930519)

【冷轧卷板】14日全国主要城市冷轧市场价格稳中小涨,冷轧板日均价为4029元/吨,日环比上涨4元/吨,周环比上涨54元/吨。黑色系期货窄幅震荡运行,冷轧市场价格稳中小涨,下游补库意愿不大,市场成交逐渐转淡,出货表现一般。近日钢厂检修减产增多,产量增速放缓,有利于缓解供需矛盾,降低大幅下跌风险。从市场了解,目前部分商家为缓解资金压力,出货意向较强,但基于市场库存延续下降,总体库存压力不大,市价仍有支撑,低价出货现象不多。预计短期市场涨跌互现,小幅盘整运行。(王晓娇 010-57930520)

【涂镀】14日全国主要城市1.0无花镀锌均价4347元(吨价,下同),环比昨日持平;全国主要城市0.3mm镀锌均价4270元,环比昨日持平;彩涂主要城市0.47彩涂均价今日5358元,环比昨日涨5元。黑色系期货窄幅震荡运行,涂镀板材价格稳中有涨,镀锌板报价较为平稳,彩涂板个别地区上扬。据了解,近日市场成交逐渐转淡,贸易商和下游客户以消化手中库存为主,继续补货意愿较差,对当前行情信心不足,谨慎观望心态明显。博兴地区彩涂产线因环保问题导致的停产大多处于设备待验收阶段,预计一周内将复产,此期间彩涂板库存得以消化,镀锌库存有累积,对后市整体影响不大。目前市场处于僵持阶段,价格涨跌空间有限。(刘东旭 010-57930525)

【中板】14日中厚板上海16-20mm萍钢价格3680-3700元/吨,天津天钢3560元/吨,乐从柳钢3820元/吨,价格整体平稳,高位运行。钢厂:国内29 家中板钢厂5 月中厚板计划产量、日均产量环比、同比都在增加,特别是平均产能利用率已经达到95%以上,这也从侧面可以反映中厚板的一个利润和市场需求度。市场:整体成交情况一般,稀缺规格加价走货顺畅,其他规格暗降出货尚可。库存:全国31个城市中厚板库存103.33万吨,环比上周减少3.76万吨,其中:东北地区周环比持平,华东、中南、西部地区库存周环比下降,华北地区周环比上涨。从数字可以看出,各地区在按部就班的去库存,基本保持四月的节奏。总结: 产量增加,产出端利空。需求旺盛,需求端明显利多。短期内,全国中厚板价格依然维持高位震荡行情。(裴菲010-57930514)

【硅钢】14日硅钢市场继续以稳为主,14日无取向硅钢均价4700元/吨,较昨日持稳,取向硅钢均价13900元/吨,较昨日持稳。由于主流钢厂刚刚出台完毕期货价格政策,下游实际订货价格未定下来,所以当前各方均在观望市场。目前市场资源到货不多,商家观望心态浓,出货较谨慎。下游方面,今日询价也不多,等待钢厂更多的优惠政策。综合来看,预计15日硅钢市场将以企稳为主。(常波 010-57930518)

【无缝管】14日国内无缝管市场售价平稳,成交一般。从全国24个主要城市区域价格来看,日均价4309元/吨,较昨持平,较上周同期下降30元/吨。今日管坯市场售价平稳,连铸管坯资源较热轧管坯仍较紧张,以致部分前期生产方坯的企业改产管坯,管坯售价也较前期显坚挺。管坯行情的好转致使无缝管企业多被迫跟涨,目前无缝管厂家出货较一般,涨价幅度有限。无缝管市场多为消化库存阶段,商家多按需采购,积极出货为主。预计后期无缝管市场有望止跌企稳。(李卫卫 010-57930631)

--不锈钢市场--

13日LME镍价在亚洲时段继续上演窄幅震荡行情,最终收在12260美元/吨,较前日收盘价涨10美元/吨(0.01%)。SHFE镍期货主力合约,收在10.12万元/吨附近,与前日收盘价基本持平。SHFE不锈钢期货主力合约,其价格小幅下行;最终收于13420元/吨,跌85元/吨(0.63%)。

镍矿价格保持稳定,菲律宾1.5%镍矿CFR均价在39美元/湿吨;价格依然坚挺,暂未有松动迹象。高镍生铁均价小涨至5元/镍至985元/镍附近,电解镍现货价格小幅上涨至10.1万元/吨;二者价差收窄至30元/镍以内。

太钢的日指导价格保持稳定,青山则未开出新盘。太钢14日无锡地区冷热轧不锈钢指导价格与昨日持平。304冷卷基价14150元/吨,316L冷卷基价20100元/吨,321冷卷基价16200元/吨。304热卷基价13550元/吨,316L热卷基价19100元/吨,321热卷基价15800元/吨。

近两日无锡市场成交逐渐转淡,300系现货市场报价有50-100元/吨的小幅下探,市场风向隐现转跌迹象。201现货价格受此前青山调涨价格的影响,继续呈现稳中走高态势。430冷轧价格保持平稳趋势,市场以观望为主。

目前看来,不锈钢市场价格有转入调整阶段的迹象。当前市场参与主体需要密切关注市场库存,原料走势以及钢厂最新的营销策略,以及时调整采购及建库策略。(程波 010-57930673)

--原料市场--

【进口矿】14日铁矿石期货夜盘继续高开,全天震荡偏强运行,主力合约盘终报收647.5元/吨,上涨1.09%,成交量减33万手,持仓量增1.4万手。今日港口现货市场早盘报价上调5元/吨,山东地区早盘报价PB粉680元/吨、卡粉820元/吨、金步巴粉615元/吨,山东地区盘终成交价为PB粉670/680元/吨、超特粉545元/吨;唐山地区早盘报价PB粉690元/吨、卡粉820元/吨、超特粉555元/吨,唐山地区盘终成交价为PB粉685元/吨、混合粉610元/吨。早盘现货报价上调5元/吨,现货市场活跃度一般,贸易商报盘积极性尚可,挺价意愿较强,钢厂询盘情绪较昨日有所好转,整体以按需采购为主。当前仍处钢材需求旺季,钢材库存去化仍在进行,钢厂在利润的支撑下生产积极性较高,增产意愿较强,铁矿石日耗保持高位,短期看铁矿石需求相对坚挺;供给方面,港口库存不断去化,库存量已处历史低位,港口资源整体偏紧,尤其巴西矿短期到货偏少,价格较为坚挺。综合看来,短期铁矿石价格以震荡偏稳为主。(刘聪 010-57930682)

【国产矿】14日国内铁精粉市场维持强势,内蒙包钢铁精粉采购价上涨20元,其他精粉产区报价暂时不变,预计短期内价格仍有上涨空间。另据调研显示,近期包钢招标外购烧结用精粉干基含税价格为800元/吨,高品位球团用铁精粉干基含税价格830元/吨,低品位球团用铁精粉干基含税价格760元/吨。近半月招标25万吨,其中烧结用精粉15万吨,高品位造球精粉6万吨,低品位造球精粉4万吨。(诸葛毅 010-57930676)

【焦炭】14日焦炭市场持稳运行,山西准一级含税出厂1550-1600元/吨。今焦化提涨范围再扩大,下午河北焦企提出明日涨价50元/吨,钢厂尚未回应,目前钢厂焦炭采购需求增加,利好焦炭价格上涨。山西地区除孝义限产外,河津地区焦化厂亦有小幅限产,对整体供应影响不大。今传山东焦化以煤定产的政策即将出台,按照耗煤及产能两个指标执行。产能及耗煤指标要求相对较严格,且指派督导组进行督查。此消息对焦炭价格有一定强力支撑。目前焦炭供应呈下降趋势,钢厂需求则陆续增加;加上山东以煤定产的消息刺激,第二轮焦炭落地或很快实现。(刘凤霞15010177915)

【焦煤】14日国内焦煤价格弱势回落,山西低硫主焦煤1290-1350元/吨不等。临近两会,产地多数煤矿尚未接到停、限产通知,多数煤矿维持正常生产,煤矿开工负荷较高,前期部分限产的煤矿近期也逐步提产,原煤供应仍稳中增加。洗煤厂方面,独立洗煤厂因销售压力大采购原煤较为谨慎,精煤库存略有回落。下游焦化厂签单仍不积极,整体需求仍较差。综上所述,炼焦煤走势仍以弱势回落为主。(刘凤霞15010177915)

【钢坯】14日全国钢坯市价小幅拉涨10元/吨,唐山地区报3160元/吨,江苏地区3240-3280元/吨,东北3160元/吨,成交表现一般较可。虽然近期黑色期货受外盘下行及5月合约交割期将至影响表现不佳,但现货市场基于供需缺口局面支撑,厂商心态多显坚挺,故一旦下游需求放量,价格势必拉涨。综合目前行情考虑,钢坯市场仍呈现窄幅坚挺的行情。(邱磊 13582548705)

【废钢】14日废钢市场涨跌互现,华北地区部分钢厂上调废钢采购价格,涨幅20-100元/吨不等;华东江苏、安徽地区少数钢厂下跌20-30元/吨。目前华东地区市场重废不含税2100-2420元/吨,唐山地区主流重A2450-2530元/吨。近日部分废钢供货商恐跌心态渐起,加快出货速度,钢厂到货情况明显有所改善。华东、西南地区少数电炉厂因成本压力已有减产操作,废钢存在下行风险。但是目前部分钢厂仍有补库需求,多以持稳收货为主。预计短期废钢市场整体持稳,部分根据自身到货及库存情况窄幅调整。(史李阳 010-57930504)

 

——---国际钢市风云---——

1.穆迪撤销美国AK钢铁公司的所有评级

2020年5月13日 - 穆迪投资者服务公司("穆迪")撤销了对AK钢铁公司(AK Steel)7.625%到期票据的评级,2023年到期的7.5%的票据,到期的6.375%的票据,2027年到期的7%的票据和IRB的评级。由于信息不足,无法维持信用评级,评级被撤销。AK钢铁于2020年3月13日被美国克利夫兰(Cleveland Cliffs)收购。今后不会提供独立财务报表。

2.钢铁制造商萨尔茨吉特预计2020年亏损将超过1亿欧元

法兰克福(路透社)-德国第二大钢铁制造商萨尔茨吉特(SZGG.DE salzgitter)周三表示,由于冠状病毒大流行对其业务构成压力,预计2020年税前亏损将大幅亏损,很可能超过1亿欧元(合1.09亿美元)。

3.美国轨道交通为汽车、煤炭和钢铁以及铁路现状预示目前严峻的形势

美国目前监测到,货运和铁路运输是实时了解经济内部情况的主要手段之一。美国铁路协会(AAR)公布每周数据显示,截至2020年5月9日的一周,美国铁路运输量较去年同期下降22.1%。这一消息显示了运输业的严峻形势,也向其他几个行业传递了一遍。当天,美国三大铁路公司的股价均走低。

4.拉美钢协:拉丁美洲钢铁产量持续下降

拉美钢协表示,在本次全球和区域性的经济危机中,拉丁美洲钢铁业一直在遭受负面挑战。地区内的各个钢铁公司不得不停减产以调整风险。分国家来说,墨西哥第一季度的GDP同比收缩了2.4%,这是自2009年第三季度以来的最大降幅,其工业和建筑业产出减少了3.8%。此外,汽车产量同比也下降了8.5%,出口量下降7%;巴西三月份的工业产出月环比下降了9.1%,与前三个月相比,2020年第一季度下降2.6%,是自2018年第二季度以来最大的降幅;阿根廷3月制造业产出月环比收缩0.9%,同比下降6.4%,国内汽车和水泥行业几乎全部停产。2月份,拉美地区的钢铁表观消费量同比减少了2.5%,环比下降7%。阿根廷和墨西哥是受影响最严重的国家。据此,拉美钢协预测地区内每个国家的表观钢材消费量降幅约13.8%,降至目前的5540万吨。

 

——---CusteelDaily---——

--Steel market--

[Construction steel]: On 13 May, domestic rebar prices continue to maintain the consolidation of the main operation, East China prices slightly weakened. The average price of threads in major cities was 3632 yuan/tonne, down 1 yuan/ton from yesterday, up 15 yuan/tonne per week. The closing price of the main contract of thread futures was RMB3464/tonne, the same as yesterday's closing price, and 134 yuan/tonne was compared to the market price of Hangzhou Zhongtian thread 3530 yuan/tonne. Futures after the night rally price dive, today to maintain a low run mainly, the overall spot transaction than yesterday has weakened, afternoon quotations have weakened signs. It is expected that tomorrow's screw prices will maintain a weak operation, prices may be slightly lower overall. (Shen Quan 010-57930530)

[Hot-rolled roll]: On 13 May,  hot-rolled spot price is generally strong but the change is small. The average price of major cities in China was 3501 yuan /tonne, up 2 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Shanghai 3400-3420 yuan / ton stable, Tianjin 3440-3450 yuan / ton stable, Le from 3460-3480 yuan / ton up 10 yuan / ton. Spot trading in major cities was slightly better than yesterday. Hot-rolled futures were up, closing up 4.12 percent at 3,337. Today Yangang's bid price was 10 yuan higher than yesterday. The overall trend of spot prices since this week is strong, but the price change is small, both supply and demand are building strength, short-term prices will still run slightly volatile. (Wenfei Shi 010-57930519)

[Cold-rolled coil]: On 13 May, major cities in the country cold-rolled market prices rose steadily, cold-rolled average price of 4025 yuan / ton, up 4 yuan / ton per day, up 87 yuan / ton per week. Among them, the Northeast, Central and South China region rose significantly, Shanghai market price Angang 1.0 cold roll 3900 yuan / ton rose 10 yuan / ton; Today cold rolling market in some parts of the still maintain the upward momentum, according to traders feedback, the transaction is not ideal, downstream demand slightly weak, mainly in the early procurement of resources need to digest time, the recent continued replenishment intention is weak. After a series of pull-ups, the market optimism weakened, turned to cautious wait-and-see-oriented, the market still bearish expectations. Short-term market volatility is expected to stabilize. (Xiaojiao Wng 010-57930520)

[Coating]: On 13 May, the average price of 1.0 flowerless galvanized in major cities nationwide was 4347 yuan/tonne, flat from yesterday, the average price of 0.3mm galvanized in major cities nationwide was 4270 yuan/tonne, flat from yesterday, and the average price of 0.47 color coating in major cities was 5353 yuan/tonne today, flat from yesterday. Black system futures night high down, coated plate prices continue to rise power shortage, more to maintain a smooth operation. Boxing sheet resource price correction 10-20 yuan / ton, mainly by the local environmental protection impact, color coating line large area stop maintenance, galvanized manufacturers shipped limited, inventory pressure increased. Upstream hot volume supply is reduced, and prices continue to rise, so that coating manufacturers profit reduction, production will decline than the previous period, which will slow down production growth, conducive to easing the contradiction between supply and demand, to prevent a sharp decline in prices. Overall, the current market uncertainties are more, manufacturers are currently more concerned about the macro-policy aspects of the two sessions, before the price will not be large fluctuations, is expected to be mainly small shocks in the near future. (Dongxu Liu 010-57930525)

[Mid-plate]: On 13 May, China-Thick plate quote: Shanghai 16-20mm Ping steel price 3680-3700 yuan / ton, Tianjin Tiangong 3560 yuan / ton, Le Cong Liugang 3820 yuan / ton, overall stability, with few down. Today, overall trading situation of the national board in general, scarce specifications to increase the price of goods smoothly, other specifications dark down shipments can still. From the market feedback point of view, the vast majority of current lying resources from steel mills last month's production, The overall output in April is small, uneven specifications is inevitable, so it seems that the short-term market specification shortage situation is more difficult to significantly improve, high medium plate prices still have strong support, in the later large number of resources to supplement, the national mid-plate price may present a high volatility market. (Fei Pei 010-57930514)

[Silicon steel]: The average price of non-directional silicon steel on the 13th was 4700 yuan/tonne, which was stable compared to yesterday, and the average price of silicon steel was 13900 yuan/tonne, which was stable compared to yesterday. Today's overall steel price rise is weak, futures performance is also general, and then transmitted to the silicon steel market is also flat. The market price of non-orientation silicon steel changed little, some merchants after the previous increase of 20-50 yuan / ton after the beginning began to wait and see, is still waiting for the steel plant orders. Downstream, home power plants began to negotiate with the steel mills order concessions, is still in the game, it is recommended that merchants operate carefully, waiting for the market. Orientation silicon steel because of the steel mill direct supply ratio is high, the market circulation is small, coupled with the steel mills introduced price policy for the flat, so basically stable-oriented. Overall, it is expected that in the short term the silicon steel market will be mainly stable. (Bo Chang 010-57930518)

[Seamless tube]: On13 May,  domestic seamless tube market prices stable in the middle of the down, transactions in general. From the price of 24 major cities in the country, the daily average price of 4309 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton from yesterday, down 30 yuan / ton from the same period last week. Today, the price of pipe blank market is stable, is now statistics 10 tube blank factory cast tube blank in May planned production of about 300,000 tons, down about 40% compared to the same period last year, so the market cast tube blank resources are less, so that Jiangsu area cast tube blanks flow to Shandong. Although limited, but enough to see that the current Shandong pipe billet production is difficult to supply the needs of local pipe factories. With the late Shandong pipe factory gradually resumed full production, cast pipe billet volume or more nervous. It is expected that the chance of a steady rise in the late tube billet market will increase. Today seamless pipe factory prices temporarily remained stable, shipping situation in general, late pipe factory or face high costs and weak demand embarrassing situation. The seamless tube market is expected to be supported by costs, with a downward trend likely to be hampered. There is the possibility of stabilisation in the latter stages. (Weiwei Li 010-57930631)

[Stainless steel market]

On the 13th, LME nickel edged lower in the Asian session in a narrow swing, eventually closing at $12,270 a tonne, down $15/tonne (0.01%) from the previous day's close. SHFE nickel futures main contract, its price fell below 100,000 yuan / ton, and finally closed near 10.11 million yuan / ton, the previous day's closing price is basically the same. SHFE stainless steel futures main contract, its price after a small recovery, finally closed at 13505 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton (0.52%).

Nickel prices remained stable, with the average price of CFR at 1.5 per cent of nickel mines in the Philippines at US$39 per wet ton, mainly due to the fact that the main Philippine nickel mining producing areas have begun to produce mines in an orderly manner. The average price of high nickel pig iron stabilized near 980 yuan/nickel, and the spot price of electrolytic nickel fell by 0.24 million yuan/tonne (2.33%) at 10.06 million yuan/tonne.

Taigang and Qingshan stainless steel factory prices steadily rising, of which Qingshan rose higher than Taigang. Taisteel 13 Wuxi area hot and cold rolled stainless steel guide price, its short-term trend appeared differentiation. The base price of each line of hot roll remained stable, 430 cold volume base price is the same as the previous day's price, 300 series cold volume base price rose 100 yuan / ton. Among them, 304 cold volume base price of 14150 yuan / ton, 3016L cold volume base price 20100 yuan / ton, 321 cold volume base price of 16200 yuan / ton. Qingshan 304 hot-rolled narrow band re-opened, up 300 yuan / ton;

Today Wuxi market 304 hot and cold rolling spot price steady in a small decline, there is no significant correction, mainly by the steel mills strong willingness to support the price. However, according to market feedback, the transaction continued to weaken, the basis of spot prices have loosened. Especially in the last two days SHFE stainless steel futures main contract price and LME nickel price impulse can be obviously insufficient, the price appeared a moderate correction. Coupled with the weak downstream demand, the final price of stainless steel to temporarily suspend the rise, but because the spot resources are not abundant, the correction range is limited.

At present, it seems that stainless steel prices will be adjusted by a certain amount to fully digest the recent increase. But when the market ushered in a new rise factor, it still has a certain amount of room for improvement.(Cheng Bo 010-57930673)

--Raw materials market--

[Imported ore]: On 13  May,  iron ore futures opened high overnight, the whole day volatility strong operation, the main contract closed at 645.5 yuan / ton, up 2.14%, the volume increased by 350,000 lots, the position increased by 35,000 lots. Today's port spot market early quotation increase of 5 yuan / ton, Shandong region early quotation PB fines is 675 yuan / ton, Carajar fine is 815 yuan / ton, Jinbu ba fine  is 610 yuan / ton, Shandong region final transaction prices for PB fine are  668/670/671/672 yuan / ton, Super special fine are 540/541 yuan / ton; Tangshan area early quotation PB fine is  685 yuan / ton, Carajar  fine is fines is 815 yuan / ton, super special fines is  555 yuan / ton, Tangshan area end-of-price pb fines is  680 yuan / ton, mixed fines is  607 yuan / ton. Early spot price increase of 5 yuan / ton, trade business market enthusiasm is still good, strong willingness to price, steel mill inquiry sentiment in general, the transaction is mainly concentrated in the low-cut Australian powder and block ore. At present is still in the peak steel demand season, steel inventory de-mining is still in progress, steel mills under the support of profits production enthusiasm is higher, the willingness to increase production is strong, iron ore daily consumption remains high, short-term iron ore demand is relatively strong; Overall, the short-term iron ore price is dominated by volatility. (Cong Liu 010-57930682)

[Domestic mine]: On 13 May,  domestic iron concentrate powder market stable in the strong, some areas of iron concentrate fine prices have risen. Hebei Zunhua iron fine  price rose 8 yuan, moved to the west up 24 yuan, moved up 10 yuan; Liaoning Jianping fine price rose 10 yuan, Benxi, Liaoyang rose 20 yuan; Shanxi traditional confrontation, Lingqiu fine powder price rose 10 yuan. In addition, the purchase price of some steel mills in northern Hebei increased by 10-20 yuan. According to our research shows that the main reason for the price increase is two: First, since May, downstream real estate and infrastructure demand for steel, steel mill production situation than in April has been larger. Second, affected by the previous outbreak, the current level of refined powder stocks in steel mills is generally low, the current willingness to replenish the stock is stronger. It is expected that this week the domestic market will continue to maintain the current level of steady and strong, price to stability-oriented. ( Geyi Zhu  010-57930676)

[Coke]: On 13 May, coke market stable operation, Tangshan quasi-first-level tax-bearing to the factory 1750-1770 yuan / ton, Shanxi quasi-first-level tax-bearing factory 1550-1600 yuan / ton. Shanxi coking plant increase is still more positive, other areas of coking plant temporarily wait and see; Downstream steel mills for price increases still have not responded, the recent high-speed road congestion phenomenon, steel mills coke arrival in general, and steel mills blast furnaces started to pick up, the demand for coke procurement increased. Port spot quotation is strong, traders procurement normal, port inventory decline. To sum up, coke prices in the supply of normal, demand has been released under the positive support, to maintain a stable and good operation. (Fengxia Liu15010177915)

[Coking coal]: On 13 May,  domestic coking coal prices weak fall, transactions still did not improve. Shanxi Liulin region low sulfur main coking coal S0.8 quote 1310 down 40 yuan / ton, other regions mainstream report 1300-1350 yuan / ton. At present, downstream sign-off is still not active, more to maintain small single procurement-based, recent low-sulfur coking coal continued to fall, downstream procurement to maintain a wait-and-see. Imported coking coal, the price of hard coking coal in Australia recently 123.5 us dollars / ton, an increase of US$2 / ton, compared with domestic coking coal still has a certain price advantage. With the resumption of customs clearance at the port, the import of coal resources increased, transactions in general. Under the constraint of increasing inventory pressure and weak downstream procurement demand, coking coal prices are still weak and falling. (Fengxia Liu15010177915)

[Steel billet]: On 13 May, the price of steel billets in most parts of the country showed a rise, ranging from 10-60 yuan/tonne, of which Tangshan reported 3150 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu reported 3240-3270 yuan/ton, and Northeast 3150 yuan/tonne, the overall transaction was generally more affordable. Recent lying of futures, many shocks, it is difficult to give spot favourable support. The current billet resources are more than less than the state of demand, coupled with the recent limited import resources to Hong Kong, the pressure on domestic billets is not obvious, so manufacturers are more willing to bargain. However, taking into account the continuous pull-up, downstream demand gradually slow, lack of upward momentum, so a comprehensive view of the short-term billet market or a small firm market. ( Lei Qiu 13582548705)

[Scrap steel]: The scrap steel market rose and fell on the 13th today, the price increase of steel mills mainly concentrated in East and North China, the increase of 30-80 yuan / ton range; At present, the East China market heavy waste does not include tax 2100-2420 yuan / ton, Tangshan region mainstream heavy A 2450-2530 yuan / ton, southwest region electric furnace plant heavy waste 2270-2370 yuan / ton. At present, the arrival situation of steel mills has not significantly improved, some of the low inventory of steel mills still have the demand for replenishment, short-term scrap prices have some support. However, independent electric furnace plant is in a loss-making state, the southwest region electric furnace plant has been operating at a lower price, waste steel continued to rise power is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term scrap market is running steadily in the middle of the consolidation, and the late stage should be alert to the downwind. (Liyang Shi 010-57930504)

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